49ers vs Falcons — Week 9, 2007
The 49ers took over trailing 17-16 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 16, Falcons 20. Falcons won 20-16 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 11, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.8% for 49ers. Our model starts at 43.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at SF 3 for -8 yards (56-K.Brooking).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right intended for 82-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Hall at SF 33. 21-D.Hall to SF 15 for 18 yards (74-J.Staley).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Pull RPO (-0.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Pull RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Curl route | -1.04 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.26 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -1.68 pts |
| QB keep | -1.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.83 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.98 pts |
| Outside run | -2.01 pts |
| Inside run | -2.13 pts |
| Deep post | -2.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.69 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.13 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.