Giants vs Bears — Week 13, 2007
The Giants took over trailing 16-14 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Bears 16. Giants won 21-16 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 23, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 40.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 22-R.Droughns right tackle to NYG 29 for 6 yards (92-H.Hillenmeyer, 54-B.Urlacher).
- (4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 85-D.Tyree to NYG 37 for 8 yards (55-L.Briggs).
- (3:57) (No Huddle) 22-R.Droughns left tackle to NYG 39 for 2 yards (91-T.Harris). FUMBLES (91-T.Harris), and recovers at NYG 40. 22-R.Droughns to NYG 40 for no gain (99-D.Walker).
- (3:25) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 81-A.Toomer to CHI 45 for 15 yards (36-B.McGowan, 38-D.Manning).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-R.Droughns left guard to CHI 41 for 4 yards (96-A.Brown).
- (2:20) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 85-D.Tyree to CHI 17 for 24 yards (36-B.McGowan).
- (2:00) 22-R.Droughns right guard to CHI 17 for no gain (97-M.Anderson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 17-P.Burress to CHI 2 for 15 yards (33-C.Tillman). Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.
- (1:37) 22-R.Droughns right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.64 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Play action | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep post | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.