Commanders vs Packers — Week 6, 2007
The Commanders took over trailing 17-14 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 14, Packers 17. Packers won 17-14 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 29, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) 17-J.Campbell FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 24, and recovers at WAS 24. 17-J.Campbell to WAS 24 for no gain (74-A.Kampman).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Campbell pass short right to 26-C.Portis to WAS 20 for -4 yards (74-A.Kampman).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Campbell sacked at WAS 17 for -3 yards (74-A.Kampman).
- (2:54) 4-D.Frost punts 38 yards to GB 45, Center-67-E.Albright. 24-J.Bush MUFFS catch, recovered by GB-21-C.Woodson at GB 42. 21-C.Woodson to GB 42 for no gain (29-L.Torrence).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Deep post | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -1.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.