Jaguars vs Titans — Week 1, 2007
The Jaguars took over trailing 13-10 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 10, Titans 13. Titans won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 26, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.8% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 34.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 89-M.Lewis to JAX 32 for 6 yards (20-N.Harper).
- (3:42) 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 28 for -4 yards (98-A.Odom).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Northcutt (31-C.Finnegan).
- (2:53) 3-A.Podlesh punts 45 yards to TEN 27, Center-88-J.Zelenka, fair catch by 17-Ch.Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Deep post | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.