Patriots vs Colts — Week 9, 2007
The Patriots took over trailing 20-17 with 3:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Colts 20. Patriots won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 3:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.7% for Patriots. Our model starts at 43.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-R.Moss to IND 46 for 5 yards (26-K.Hayden).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 18-D.Stallworth pushed ob at IND 13 for 33 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.25 pts |
| Deep post | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -2.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.