Raiders vs Lions — Week 1, 2007
The Raiders took over trailing 26-21 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 21, Lions 36. Lions won 36-21 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 23.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 12-J.McCown pass short right to 36-J.Griffith to LV 36 for 5 yards (50-E.Sims).
- (3:19) 12-J.McCown pass short middle intended for 17-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 99-D.White at LV 38. 99-D.White to LV 10 for 28 yards (80-Z.Miller).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Deep post | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.