Bills vs Broncos — Week 1, 2007
The Bills took over leading 14-12 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Bills 14, Broncos 15. Broncos won 15-14 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 33, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.3% for Bills. Our model starts at 73.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to BUF 36 for 3 yards (58-N.Webster).
- (2:51) 23-M.Lynch right end pushed ob at BUF 38 for 2 yards (55-D.Williams).
- (2:43) 7-J.Losman pass incomplete deep right to 83-L.Evans. Overthrown, receiver at DEN 10.
- (2:25) 8-B.Moorman punts 46 yards to DEN 26, Center-72-R.Neill. 12-D.Hixon to DEN 34 for 8 yards (51-P.Posluszny).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| QB keep | +0.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Curl route | -0.74 pts |
| Play action | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.27 pts |
| End-around | -3.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.84 pts |
| Deep post | -5.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.