Bills vs Jets — Week 4, 2007
The Bills took over leading 17-14 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bills 17, Jets 14. Bills won 17-14 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.4% for Bills. Our model starts at 79.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) 23-M.Lynch right guard to BUF 31 for 3 yards (99-B.Thomas).
- (2:12) 82-J.Reed left end to BUF 35 for 4 yards (93-K.Coleman). Reverse, handoff from T.Edwards.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Reed (24-D.Revis). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 40.
- (1:55) 8-B.Moorman punts 44 yards to NYJ 21, Center-72-R.Neill. 29-L.Washington to NYJ 26 for 5 yards (53-M.Haggan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | -0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Curl route | -1.21 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.73 pts |
| End-around | -3.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.39 pts |
| Deep post | -6.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.