Commanders vs Cardinals — Week 7, 2007
The Commanders took over leading 21-13 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 21, Cardinals 19. Commanders won 21-19 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.5% for Commanders. Our model starts at 94.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) 26-C.Portis left end to WAS 23 for 3 yards (54-G.Hayes).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Campbell pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Thrash (26-R.Hood).
- (2:56) 26-C.Portis left end pushed ob at WAS 24 for 1 yard (25-E.Green). Penalty on WAS-60-C.Samuels, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:50) 4-D.Frost punts 58 yards to ARI 18, Center-67-E.Albright. 15-S.Breaston to ARI 29 for 11 yards (37-R.Doughty, 87-T.Yoder).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.84 pts |
| Curl route | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.25 pts |
| Deep post | -8.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.