Titans vs Colts — Week 2, 2007
The Titans took over trailing 22-20 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 20, Colts 22. Colts won 22-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.8% for Titans. Our model starts at 32.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young sacked at TEN 15 for -5 yards (21-B.Sanders).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-V.Young pass short left to 81-B.Jones to TEN 21 for 6 yards (23-T.Jennings).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-V.Young scrambles right end ran ob at TEN 33 for 12 yards (58-G.Brackett).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young pass short right to 86-R.Williams ran ob at TEN 47 for 14 yards.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young scrambles left end ran ob at IND 47 for 6 yards (23-T.Jennings).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young pass incomplete short left to 81-B.Jones.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young pass incomplete short left to 81-B.Jones.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 10-V.Young to TEN 47 for -6 yards. Lateral to 60-J.Bell to TEN 46 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-95-D.Reid at TEN 38.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.24 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.74 pts |
| QB keep | +1.57 pts |
| Play action | +1.16 pts |
| Quick out | +0.89 pts |
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.59 pts |
| End-around | -1.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.