Jets vs Giants — Week 5, 2007
The Jets took over trailing 28-24 with 4:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Jets 24, Giants 35. Giants won 35-24 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 23, 4:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.3% for Jets. Our model starts at 27.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass short right to 29-L.Washington to NYJ 17 for -1 yards (55-K.Mitchell) [72-O.Umenyiora].
- (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete deep left to 87-L.Coles (37-J.Butler).
- (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass deep middle to 16-B.Smith to NYJ 34 for 17 yards (37-J.Butler).
- (3:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass short left to 87-L.Coles pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 5 yards (29-S.Madison).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass short right intended for 89-J.Cotchery INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Ross at NYJ 43. 31-A.Ross for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.10 pts |
| Deep post | -0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.04 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.