Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 12, 2007
The Raiders took over leading 20-17 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Chiefs 17. Raiders won 20-17 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 24, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 75.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 25-J.Fargas up the middle to LV 36 for 12 yards (49-B.Pollard).
- (3:37) 25-J.Fargas right end pushed ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (56-D.Johnson).
- (3:31) 8-D.Culpepper pass short right to 89-R.Curry to KC 43 for 10 yards (49-B.Pollard).
- (2:45) 25-J.Fargas left tackle to KC 47 for -4 yards (56-D.Johnson).
- (1:59) 25-J.Fargas right tackle to KC 44 for 3 yards (95-R.Edwards).
- (1:54) 25-J.Fargas right end to KC 23 for 21 yards (49-B.Pollard).
- (1:10) 8-D.Culpepper kneels to KC 24 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 8-D.Culpepper kneels to KC 25 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Curl route | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| End-around | -3.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.30 pts |
| Deep post | -5.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.