Commanders vs Dolphins — Week 1, 2007
The Commanders took over tied at 13 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 13, Dolphins 13. Tied 13-13 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.3% for Commanders. Our model starts at 57.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) 46-L.Betts up the middle to WAS 37 for 8 yards (54-Z.Thomas).
- (1:24) 46-L.Betts right end to WAS 34 for -3 yards (55-J.Porter).
- (1:15) 17-J.Campbell pass incomplete short right to 82-A.Randle El.
- (1:10) 4-D.Frost punts 51 yards to MIA 15, Center-67-E.Albright. 19-T.Ginn to MIA 22 for 7 yards (54-H.Blades).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.63 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| Curl route | +1.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.74 pts |
| Deep post | -2.25 pts |
| End-around | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.