Broncos vs Steelers — Week 7, 2007
The Broncos took over tied at 28 with 1:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 31, Steelers 28. Broncos won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 1:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 54.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 88-T.Scheffler to DEN 36 for 16 yards (43-T.Polamalu). Penalty on PIT-53-C.Haggans, Defensive Offside, declined.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 15-B.Marshall.
- (:59) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 15-B.Marshall to DEN 45 for 9 yards (24-I.Taylor).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 17-G.Martinez to PIT 39 for 11 yards (22-W.Gay).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 89-D.Graham. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 89-D.Graham to PIT 30 for 9 yards (25-R.Clark).
- (:20) 35-S.Young left tackle to PIT 31 for -1 yards (92-J.Harrison).
- (:02) 1-J.Elam 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.86 pts |
| Curl route | +1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.68 pts |
| QB keep | +1.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.91 pts |
| Play action | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.93 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.23 pts |
| Deep post | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -2.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.