Steelers vs Dolphins — Week 12, 2007
The Steelers took over tied at 0 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at the Dolphins 42, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 3, Dolphins 0. Steelers won 3-0 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. In Dolphins territory, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 68.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) 39-W.Parker left guard to MIA 40 for 2 yards (94-K.Traylor).
- (3:39) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 86-H.Ward to MIA 19 for 21 yards (32-J.Allen).
- (2:55) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 86-H.Ward to MIA 23 for 6 yards (44-C.Worrell).
- (2:14) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 86-H.Ward to MIA 12 for 11 yards (21-A.Goodman; 25-W.Allen).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 15-W.Reid to MIA 6 for 6 yards (22-M.Lehan, 44-C.Worrell).
- (1:19) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 39-W.Parker (55-J.Porter).
- (1:13) 39-W.Parker right guard to MIA 5 for 1 yard (91-V.Holliday).
- (1:07) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at MIA 6 for -1 yards (sack split by 90-R.Wright and 52-C.Crowder).
- (:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Reed 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-9-D.Sepulveda.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Quick out | -0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.31 pts |
| Curl route | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Play action | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.94 pts |
| End-around | -3.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.45 pts |
| Deep post | -4.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.