Ravens vs Cardinals — Week 3, 2007
The Ravens took over tied at 23 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 26, Cardinals 23. Ravens won 26-23 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 55.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short left to 86-T.Heap to BAL 27 for 7 yards (54-G.Hayes, 58-K.Dansby).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 23-W.McGahee up the middle to BAL 28 for 1 yard (94-A.Smith).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short left to 85-D.Mason ran ob at BAL 33 for 5 yards.
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short middle to 23-W.McGahee to BAL 34 for 1 yard (54-G.Hayes).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short middle to 86-T.Heap to BAL 46 for 12 yards (24-A.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-24-A.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 7-K.Boller pass short left to 85-D.Mason to ARI 32 for 7 yards (58-K.Dansby).
- (:21) 32-M.Smith up the middle to ARI 30 for 2 yards (54-G.Hayes).
- (:19) 7-K.Boller up the middle to ARI 28 for 2 yards (90-D.Dockett, 94-A.Smith).
- (:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-70-M.Katula, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.43 pts |
| QB keep | +1.42 pts |
| Curl route | +1.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.56 pts |
| Deep post | -1.93 pts |
| End-around | -2.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.