Buccaneers vs Titans — Week 6, 2007
The Buccaneers took over tied at 10 with 1:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 13, Titans 10. Buccaneers won 13-10 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 1:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.6% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 53.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass incomplete short left to 19-I.Hilliard.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Galloway (31-C.Finnegan).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass short middle to 19-I.Hilliard ran ob at TB 48 for 28 yards.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass short middle to 34-E.Graham to TEN 49 for 3 yards (20-N.Harper).
- (:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass short middle to 84-J.Galloway to TEN 35 for 14 yards (23-D.Nickey) [97-T.Brown].
- (:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Garcia pass short right to 19-I.Hilliard ran ob at TEN 25 for 10 yards.
- (:16) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.Economos, Holder-9-J.Bidwell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.87 pts |
| Curl route | +1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.71 pts |
| QB keep | +1.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.92 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.14 pts |
| Deep post | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -2.27 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.