Eagles vs Packers — Week 1, 2007
The Eagles took over tied at 13 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at the Packers 38, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 13, Packers 16. Packers won 16-13 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, even score — any score wins it. In Packers territory, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 60.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 67.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 28-C.Buckhalter up the middle to GB 42 for -4 yards (56-N.Barnett).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 36-B.Westbrook left tackle to GB 40 for 2 yards (56-N.Barnett, 79-R.Pickett).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete deep left to 80-K.Curtis.
- (2:38) 6-S.Rocca punts 28 yards to GB 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-10.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.27 pts |
| Curl route | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Play action | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -2.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.35 pts |
| Deep post | -4.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.90 pts |
| Field goal | -10.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.