Chargers vs Jaguars — Week 11, 2007
The Chargers took over trailing 24-17 with 2:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
This drive is part of Pro — one purchase unlocks every past daily, both classic packs and the full library, on all your devices.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Jaguars 24. Jaguars won 24-17 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.3% for Chargers. Our model starts at 7.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:13) 17-P.Rivers scrambles up the middle to LAC 31 for 6 yards (54-M.Peterson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles up the middle to LAC 41 for 10 yards.
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 21-L.Tomlinson.
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 40-L.Naanee INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Knight at LAC 48. 26-S.Knight to LAC 43 for 5 yards (79-M.Goff). JJ25 Shaken up on the play. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and Upheld.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Spike it | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.