Browns vs Ravens — Week 11, 2007
The Browns took over tied at 27 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 30, Ravens 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 22, 3:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.8% for Browns. Our model starts at 54.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 17-B.Edwards to CLE 38 for 16 yards (21-C.McAlister).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 17-B.Edwards to CLE 42 for 4 yards (52-R.Lewis). BAL #90 Trevor Pryce injured on the play
- (2:15) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete to 17-B.Edwards (97-K.Gregg). PENALTY on CLE-3-D.Anderson, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 42.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson sacked at CLE 27 for -5 yards (55-T.Suggs).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 15-D.Zastudil punts 51 yards to BAL 22, Center-64-R.Pontbriand. 20-E.Reed to BAL 22 for no gain (27-N.Sorensen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.20 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.92 pts |
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.00 pts |
| Deep post | -2.48 pts |
| End-around | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.