Chiefs vs Packers — Week 9, 2007
The Chiefs took over trailing 23-22 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 22, Packers 33. Packers won 33-22 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 22, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 46.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 11-D.Huard pass deep left to 80-J.Webb ran ob at GB 42 for 36 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-D.Huard pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Webb.
- (2:52) 11-D.Huard sacked at KC 15 for -7 yards (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 11-D.Huard pass incomplete short right to 18-S.Parker.
- (2:14) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to GB 42, Center-51-J.Darche. 21-C.Woodson to KC 31 for 27 yards (84-K.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.43 pts |
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.25 pts |
| Deep post | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.