Falcons vs Panthers — Week 10, 2007
The Falcons took over tied at 13 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 20, Panthers 13. Falcons won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 24, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 54.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 13-J.Harrington pass incomplete deep left to 84-R.White (21-K.Lucas).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 28-W.Dunn left end to ATL 24 for no gain (52-J.Beason).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 13-J.Harrington pass short left to 19-L.Robinson to ATL 30 for 6 yards (21-K.Lucas).
- (2:11) 9-M.Koenen punts 50 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-M.Schneck. 10-R.Robinson to CAR 22 for 2 yards (38-C.McIntyre; 20-A.Pinner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.09 pts |
| End-around | -2.52 pts |
| Deep post | -2.62 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.