Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 2, 2007
The Seahawks took over tied at 20 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 23. Cardinals won 23-20 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 51.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 38-M.Strong right end to SEA 21 for 1 yard (54-G.Hayes).
- (4:39) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 84-B.Engram to SEA 29 for 8 yards (25-E.Green).
- (3:52) 38-M.Strong left tackle to SEA 32 for 3 yards (91-R.Bailey, 24-A.Wilson).
- (3:17) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to SEA 41 for 9 yards (54-G.Hayes).
- (2:06) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to SEA 44 for 3 yards (24-A.Wilson).
- (2:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 38-M.Strong to ARI 41 for 15 yards (54-G.Hayes).
- (1:55) 8-M.Hasselbeck FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 44, RECOVERED by ARI-90-D.Dockett at SEA 46. 90-D.Dockett to SEA 46 for no gain (98-B.Atkins).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Curl route | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Play action | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.33 pts |
| End-around | -2.61 pts |
| Deep post | -2.89 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.