Rams vs 49ers — Week 2, 2007
The Rams took over trailing 17-16 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 16, 49ers 17. 49ers won 17-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 40, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.9% for Rams. Our model starts at 54.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass incomplete short right to 84-R.McMichael [95-T.Banta-Cain].
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 39-S.Jackson up the middle to LA 43 for 3 yards (94-M.Douglas).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Bennett [95-T.Banta-Cain].
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass incomplete short left to 84-R.McMichael.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.00 pts |
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.92 pts |
| Deep post | -2.38 pts |
| End-around | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.