Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 7, 2007
The Raiders took over trailing 12-10 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 10, Chiefs 12. Chiefs won 12-10 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 26, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 36.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Culpepper pass short right to 80-Z.Miller pushed ob at LV 33 for 7 yards (24-T.Law).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Culpepper pass short right to 89-R.Curry to LV 41 for 8 yards (59-D.Edwards).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Culpepper pass short middle to 89-R.Curry to LV 44 for 3 yards (56-D.Johnson).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Culpepper pass short right intended for 89-R.Curry INTERCEPTED by 44-J.Page at KC 48. 44-J.Page to LV 15 for 37 yards (8-D.Culpepper).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.77 pts |
| QB keep | +1.60 pts |
| Play action | +1.11 pts |
| Quick out | +0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.76 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.67 pts |
| End-around | -1.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.00 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.