Vikings vs Chiefs — Week 3, 2007
The Vikings took over trailing 13-10 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 10, Chiefs 13. Chiefs won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 37, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.3% for Vikings. Our model starts at 36.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to MIN 40 for 3 yards (59-D.Edwards).
- (2:22) 13-K.Holcomb pass incomplete short left to 89-R.Ferguson.
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 13-K.Holcomb pass incomplete short middle to 18-S.Rice (70-A.Boone).
- (2:18) 5-C.Kluwe punts 47 yards to KC 13, Center-46-C.Loeffler. 85-E.Drummond to KC 25 for 12 yards (50-V.Ciurciu). PENALTY on MIN-46-C.Loeffler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 25.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.39 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.18 pts |
| Deep post | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.