Falcons vs Titans — Week 5, 2007
The Falcons took over trailing 20-13 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at the Titans 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 13, Titans 20. Titans won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. In Titans territory, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.8% for Falcons. Our model starts at 29.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) 28-W.Dunn left end to TEN 22 for -1 yards (31-C.Finnegan, 53-K.Bulluck).
- (3:32) 4-B.Leftwich pass incomplete deep left to 19-L.Robinson.
- (3:28) 4-B.Leftwich pass short left intended for 84-R.White INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Thornton (91-T.LaBoy) at TEN 14. 50-D.Thornton to TEN 19 for 5 yards (79-R.Foster, 12-M.Jenkins).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+5.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +5.52 pts |
| Curl route | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.15 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Play action | +0.64 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.55 pts |
| Deep post | -1.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.