Seahawks vs Bengals — Week 3, 2007
The Seahawks took over trailing 21-17 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 24, Bengals 21. Seahawks won 24-21 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 30.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to SEA 40 for no gain (96-M.Myers, 91-R.Geathers).
- (2:19) (No Huddle) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 81-N.Burleson ran ob at CIN 45 for 15 yards.
- (2:12) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to 38-M.Strong (96-M.Myers).
- (2:02) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 81-N.Burleson (59-L.Johnson).
- (1:58) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short middle to 83-D.Branch to CIN 36 for 9 yards (25-K.Ratliff).
- (1:41) 37-S.Alexander right tackle to CIN 22 for 14 yards (59-L.Johnson).
- (1:06) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep left to 81-N.Burleson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.67 pts |
| End-around | -1.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.