Bills vs Dolphins — Week 10, 2007
The Bills took over tied at 10 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 13, Dolphins 10. Bills won 13-10 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, even score — any score wins it. Near midfield, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.7% for Bills. Our model starts at 64.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 23-M.Lynch left tackle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (91-V.Holliday).
- (3:54) 7-J.Losman pass incomplete short left to 82-J.Reed.
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass short left to 23-M.Lynch to MIA 38 for 10 yards (91-V.Holliday). FUMBLES (91-V.Holliday), recovered by BUF-71-J.Peters at MIA 36.
- (3:01) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to MIA 32 for 4 yards (59-D.Spragan).
- (2:14) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to MIA 28 for 4 yards (59-D.Spragan).
- (2:00) 23-M.Lynch right end to MIA 25 for 3 yards (52-C.Crowder). BUF-23-M.Lynch was injured during the play.
- (1:54) 28-A.Thomas right guard to MIA 25 for no gain (56-D.Pope).
- (1:48) 7-J.Losman pass short right to 86-M.Gaines to MIA 16 for 9 yards (31-L.Schulters, 90-R.Wright).
- (1:39) 28-A.Thomas right guard to MIA 16 for no gain (94-K.Traylor; 59-D.Spragan).
- (:50) 9-R.Lindell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.12 pts |
| Curl route | -0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Play action | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -2.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.24 pts |
| Deep post | -4.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.