Cardinals vs Steelers — Week 4, 2007
The Cardinals took over leading 21-14 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 21, Steelers 14. Cardinals won 21-14 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Steelers territory, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.0% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 97.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) 32-E.James right tackle to PIT 38 for 3 yards (24-I.Taylor).
- (1:44) 32-E.James up the middle to PIT 37 for 1 yard (51-J.Farrior).
- (:57) 32-E.James up the middle to PIT 33 for 4 yards (91-AA.Smith, 51-J.Farrior).
- (:52) 5-M.Barr punts 24 yards to PIT 9, Center-48-N.Hodel, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| Field goal | -1.45 pts |
| QB keep | -1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Play action | -3.18 pts |
| Curl route | -3.62 pts |
| End-around | -5.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.66 pts |
| Deep post | -9.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.