Colts vs Titans — Week 6, 2026

What really happened

Final: Colts 20, Titans 26. Titans won 26-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 23, 1:57 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 27.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:57) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 86-W.Mallory ran ob at IND 38 for 15 yards.
2. (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.Taylor.
3. (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.
4. (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (11-J.Johnson).
5. (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.