Jaguars vs Texans — Week 6, 2026
The Jaguars took over trailing 31-28 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 31, Texans 34. Texans won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.4% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 31.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers to JAX 35 for 15 yards (24-D.Stingley) [0-A.Al-Shaair].
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to JAX 43 for 8 yards (29-M.Stewart).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange pushed ob at HOU 48 for 9 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 85-B.Strange (2-C.Bullock).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 11-P.Washington.
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to HOU 42 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley; 0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (2:00) 39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.