Buccaneers vs Browns — Week 2, 2026
The Buccaneers took over trailing 23-19 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 19, Browns 23. Browns won 23-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 35.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CLE 47 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams). CLE-33-R.Hickman was injured during the play.
- (3:18) 7-B.Irving right guard to CLE 42 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 57-I.McGuire).
- (2:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at CLE 34 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (2:33) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 28 for 6 yards (94-M.Graham; 49-C.Schwesinger).
- (2:00) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CLE 25 for 3 yards (96-M.Collins). ** Injury Update: CLE-33-R.Hickman has returned to the game.
- (1:23) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CLE 19 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-T.Hurst to CLE 13 for 6 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Hurst (29-M.Blackmon).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to CLE 20 for 3 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.27 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Play action | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Deep post | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.