Bills vs Texans — Week 1, 2026
The Bills took over trailing 31-30 with 3:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 36, Texans 31. Bills won 36-31 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 4, 3:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.3% for Bills. Our model starts at 46.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.
- (2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.
- (2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (1:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 34 for -1 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.46 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-3.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.88 pts |
| QB keep | -1.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.03 pts |
| Outside run | -2.20 pts |
| Inside run | -2.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.83 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Curl route | -3.05 pts |
| Deep post | -3.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.