Cardinals vs Rams — Week 6, 2026
The Cardinals took over leading 15-9 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 18, Rams 16. Cardinals won 18-16 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 93.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) 22-T.Allgeier left end to ARI 44 for -1 yards (10-J.Stewart, 97-P.Ford).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 45 for 1 yard (30-J.Wallace). Penalty on ARI, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 17-K.Bourne (30-J.Wallace) [99-A.Donald].
- (2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.