Bengals vs Buccaneers — Week 1, 2026
The Bengals took over leading 33-27 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27. Bengals won 33-27 — the drive time expired.
Bengals ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.6% for Bengals. Our model starts at 90.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 42 for 18 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 31-A.Winfield).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine to TB 44 for 14 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (2:17) 30-C.Brown up the middle to TB 44 for no gain (23-T.Smith).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 5-T.Higgins to TB 26 for 18 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
- (2:08) 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 30-C.Brown left tackle to TB 27 for -1 yards (45-J.Trotter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right end to TB 17 for 5 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
- (1:12) 9-J.Burrow left guard to TB 16 for 1 yard (34-A.Anzalone; 45-J.Trotter).
- (:29) 9-J.Burrow kneels to TB 17 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.20 pts |
| Curl route | -2.58 pts |
| End-around | -4.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.51 pts |
| Deep post | -7.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.