Steelers vs Falcons — Week 1, 2026
The Steelers took over leading 20-13 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13. Steelers won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 8, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) 13-R.Dowdle right tackle to PIT 8 for no gain (94-L.London).
- (3:36) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 22 for 14 yards (24-Aj.Terrell).
- (3:32) 13-R.Dowdle right guard to PIT 20 for -2 yards (0-D.Deablo).
- (2:47) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 29 for 9 yards (29-S.Brown; 52-S.Ebukam).
- (2:35) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington pushed ob at PIT 44 for 15 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (2:28) 13-R.Dowdle right end to PIT 48 for 4 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (2:23) 30-J.Warren left end to ATL 43 for 9 yards (95-G.Dexter).
- (2:00) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 44 for -1 yards.
- (1:17) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 45 for -1 yards.
- (:40) 8-A.Rodgers kneels to ATL 46 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.88 pts |
| QB keep | -1.89 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Curl route | -3.52 pts |
| End-around | -5.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.