Seahawks vs 49ers — Week 5, 2026
The Seahawks took over trailing 32-29 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 29, 49ers 32. 49ers won 32-29 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 25.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to 50 for 35 yards (53-J.Dugger).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (0-R.Green).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner [54-F.Warner].
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| Deep post | +0.28 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.01 pts |
| Play action | -0.23 pts |
| QB keep | -0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.41 pts |
| Outside run | -1.83 pts |
| Spike it | -2.32 pts |
| Inside run | -2.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.