Rams vs Eagles — Week 4, 2026
The Rams took over trailing 20-17 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Rams 24, Eagles 20. Rams won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 21, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.4% for Rams. Our model starts at 28.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 32 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).
- (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 16 yards (2-T.Woolen).
- (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at PHI 39 for 13 yards.
- (2:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell to PHI 31 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones; 33-C.DeJean).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 19 for 12 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 97-M.Ojomo).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (31-J.Jones).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (11-J.Campbell).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 8 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 54-J.Trotter).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 7 for 1 yard (35-M.Carter; 24-A.Mukuba).
- (1:17) 23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.70 pts |
| Curl route | +1.68 pts |
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.82 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Play action | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep post | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.