Eagles vs Titans — Week 2, 2026

What really happened

Final: Eagles 24, Titans 20. Eagles won 24-20 — the drive scored.

Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.4% for Eagles. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 13-D.Wicks.
2. (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at PHI 39 for 4 yards.
3. (1:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 20 yards (26-M.Harris).
4. (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith to TEN 32 for 9 yards (24-A.Taylor).
5. (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith ran ob at TEN 26 for 6 yards.
6. (:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right [57-J.Martin].
7. (:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to TEN 22 for 4 yards (26-M.Harris).
8. (:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith pushed ob at TEN 3 for 19 yards (21-M.Robinson).
9. (:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.