Cowboys vs Texans — Week 4, 2026
The Cowboys took over trailing 30-27 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Cowboys won 34-30 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 26, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.6% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 29.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (5-J.Pitre).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for -3 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left [51-W.Anderson].
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen) [51-W.Anderson].
- (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy [51-W.Anderson].
- (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.97 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.97 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.34 pts |
| Quick out | +1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep post | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.