Raiders vs Saints — Week 3, 2026
The Raiders took over leading 35-27 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27. Raiders won 35-27 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 32, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.6% for Raiders. Our model starts at 97.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) 2-A.Jeanty right tackle to LV 44 for 12 yards (23-J.Blackmon).
- (2:00) 2-A.Jeanty right guard to LV 48 for 4 yards (93-N.Shepherd; 92-D.Godchaux).
- (1:55) 2-A.Jeanty right end to LV 49 for 1 yard (55-K.Elliss; 21-J.Reid).
- (1:48) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LV 40 for -9 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], recovered by LV-34-C.Heyward at LV 40.
- (1:44) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.63 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -3.01 pts |
| Curl route | -3.48 pts |
| End-around | -5.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.47 pts |
| Deep post | -9.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.