Seahawks vs Commanders — Week 3, 2026
The Seahawks took over trailing 27-24 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Commanders 33. Commanders won 33-31 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 35.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at WAS 44 for 26 yards.
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Price (29-R.Douglas) [98-O.Oweh].
- (4:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Medrano at 50. 56-K.Medrano for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.39 pts |
| Curl route | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Play action | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.05 pts |
| Deep post | -2.05 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.