Bengals vs Steelers — Week 3, 2026
The Bengals took over trailing 30-27 with 2:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Steelers 30. Steelers won 30-27 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 2:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 30.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to CIN 47 for 17 yards (20-R.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to CIN 43 for -4 yards (6-P.Queen) [95-K.Benton].
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to CIN 49 for 6 yards (20-R.Jenkins).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase ran ob at PIT 38 for 13 yards (23-D.Everette).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.61 pts |
| QB keep | +1.40 pts |
| Quick out | +1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Deep post | -1.19 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.