Cowboys vs Ravens — Week 3, 2026
The Cowboys took over trailing 31-28 with 1:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 31, Ravens 34. Ravens won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 1:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 48 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens.
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 38 for 14 yards (24-M.Starks).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at BAL 29 for 9 yards (29-C.Rivers) [91-T.Hendrickson].
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 22 for 7 yards (24-M.Starks).
- (:23) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (2-N.Wiggins).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith). DAL-78-T.Steele was injured during the play.
- (:14) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens.
- (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.30 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.81 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.73 pts |
| QB keep | +1.55 pts |
| Play action | +1.19 pts |
| Deep post | +1.11 pts |
| Quick out | +0.89 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.