49ers vs Cardinals — Week 3, 2026
The 49ers took over leading 29-27 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 36, Cardinals 30. 49ers won 36-30 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 35, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 76.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:51) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 46 for 11 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 50-J.Gibbens).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk (25-Z.Collins).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to ARI 42 for 12 yards (31-W.Williams).
- (1:56) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to ARI 45 for -3 yards (50-J.Gibbens).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-85-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 10.
- (1:41) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard to ARI 20 for no gain (5-B.Browning; 97-W.Nolen).
- (1:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.91 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Curl route | -0.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -3.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.53 pts |
| Deep post | -7.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.