Two Minute Drill — Saturday, November 7, 2026
The daily drive from Saturday, November 7, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Pro members replay it call by call. Skip to what really happened ↓
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What really happened
Final: Steelers 31, Bengals 33. Bengals won 33-31 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.7% for Steelers. Our model starts at 18.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 80-D.Washington (55-L.Wilson).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-2.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.10 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Deep post | +0.51 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | -0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.24 pts |
| Outside run | -1.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.73 pts |
| Spike it | -1.81 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.14 pts |
| Inside run | -2.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.