Two Minute Drill — Friday, November 6, 2026
The daily drive from Friday, November 6, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Browns — can you finish the comeback?
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 12, 2:47 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Browns 20, Bills 23. Bills won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 12, 2:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 28.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 83-M.Corley pushed ob at CLE 23 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 15 for -8 yards (sack split by 50-G.Rousseau and 21-J.Poyer).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right [50-G.Rousseau]. PENALTY on CLE-12-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at CLE 15.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Jeudy.
- (1:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BUF 48, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Shakir to CLE 49 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.56 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.73 pts |
| Deep post | -1.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.08 pts |
| Play action | -1.30 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.51 pts |
| Outside run | -2.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.97 pts |
| Inside run | -2.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -3.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.