Two Minute Drill — Sunday, November 8, 2026
The daily drive from Sunday, November 8, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Patriots — can you finish the comeback?
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:43 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Patriots 31, Bills 35. Bills won 35-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 13-M.Hollins to NE 22 for 5 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 22 for 0 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 32-T.Henderson.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (97-J.Bosa).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-2.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.23 pts |
| Deep post | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | +0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.11 pts |
| Quick out | -0.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -1.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.08 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -2.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.42 pts |
| Inside run | -2.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.