Bills vs Chargers — Week 3, 2026
The Bills took over leading 24-16 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Bills 24, Chargers 16. Bills won 24-16 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.0% for Bills. Our model starts at 98.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 4-J.Cook right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (3-D.James; 52-K.Mack).
- (1:50) 4-J.Cook left guard to LAC 41 for 2 yards (20-C.Hart).
- (1:06) 4-J.Cook left guard to LAC 32 for 9 yards (27-R.Mickens).
- (:31) 17-J.Allen kneels to LAC 33 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.00 pts |
| Quick out | -1.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.78 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.85 pts |
| Play action | -3.22 pts |
| Curl route | -3.70 pts |
| End-around | -5.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.70 pts |
| Deep post | -9.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.